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Winter 2012 Market Update
Market Update for Northern Virginia: Prince William County / Quantico MCB as of Q3 2011
By Susan Borrelli
Co-Owner Ron & Susan Associates
January 2, 2012
In the United States a metropolitan statistical area refers to a geographical region with a relatively high population density at its core (at least 2.5 million) and close economic ties throughout the area. A typical metropolitan area is centered around a single large city that wields substantial influence over the region.
Northern Virginia is such a metropolitan area. It is made up of closely-tied contiguous counties that serve the distinct employment opportunities of the Federal Government and the multitude of agencies which support it. Consequently, Northern Virginia receives the lions-share of Federal procurement spending. Northern Virginia is also home to Fort Belvoir, Quantico MCB, Fort Meyer and The Pentagon and is headquarters to many technology companies and consulting firms.
Highlights cited from the Metropolitan Regional Information Service Quarterly Market Report Dated November 6, 2011: Prince William County
1) Average Sold Price Increased by 10% vs. 1 Year Ago (not including condominiums)
2) Sold Price as a Percent of List Price is 96%
Factors contributing to the recovering Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
1) Loan modifications are more prevalent allowing homeowners to remain in their homes. This has lead to a decrease in the inventory of homes for sale. (This is not the case in other areas of the country where rates of unemployment are significantly higher).
2) Banks have opted to authorize short sales rather than foreclose when the seller has a legitimate hardship and communicates in good faith with the bank. Short sale homes are being priced under market value but the gap between market value and sales price has decreased significantly since late 2009. One reason for this is sellers remain in their homes while they try to sell the property thus maintaining the home in good condition. Consequently, short sales are a viable option for more buyers now because the approval process is far more streamlined and takes approximately 3 months on average versus 6 months and longer just a year ago.
3) Average Sales Price as a percent of list price at 96% for homes priced up to $400,000 means, in my opinion, that the minds of buyers and sellers are closely aligned as it pertains to home values. This opinion is substantiated by DOM statistics (Days on Market) which show that buyers are not waiting for prices to adjust downward before making an offer.
4) Unemployment in the Northern Virginia area is approximately 4.6% - far below unemployment rates faced by other regions of the country. Several factors including military personnel and contractors being moved from other military bases to Fort Belvoir and Quantico MCB has kept demand for housing relatively high. This would normally drive housing prices up but conservative bank appraisals (which often take into account short sale comparables), has been a form of checks and balances which have kept prices from climbing at higher rates. As a listing agent, I have personally dealt with several low appraisals which put the home sale in jeopardy of closing. A strong rebuttal driven by our local market expertise was the only reason the homes settled at the contracted prices.
Predictions-2012
Demand will remain higher than the supply of homes and prices will continue to rise. Banks will continue to approve loans but will remain conservative as far as home values thus housing prices will not spike. In addition to BRAC, record low interest rates are a driving force for first time, VA and move up buyers. Rent prices are high and this has added to the demand for housing. I see this demand continuing into the near future.
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| Average Home Price | $400,000 - View Graph Trend |
| Average Price Compared to Last Year | Up 5-10% |
| Average Time on Market | 60-90 days |
| Best Selling Price Range | $400,000 - $449,000 |
| Worst Selling Price Range | $500,000 - $549,000 |
| Prices As % of Asking Price | 95-100% |
| Existing Home Prices for the past 90 days are? | Increasing |
| Market Trend | Decreasing |
| Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market | Equal buyers and sellers |
| Buyer Activity for the past 90 days in Quantico is | Increasing |
| Seller Activity for the past 90 days in Quantico is? | Decreasing |
| Multiple Offers? | Yes |
| Multiple Offers Commentary | Homes in good condition and appropriately priced receive multiple offers. |
| What Percentage of the Current Housing Inventory are Foreclosures and/or Short Sales? | More than 50% |
| Is Financing Available For Qualified Buyers? | Yes |
| Comments on Financing For Qualified Buyers | The VA Loan is an excellent option for members of our military. Consequently, the allowable loan limit for 100% financing has been increased to $818,750, effective January 1 through September 30, 2013. Conventional loans require a down payment of 20% to receive the best interest rates and banks are looking for a credit score of 720 and higher. Interest rates are still at all time low’s across the board. |
| Housing Inventory | Good supply - Some Prices |
| Inventory Comments | Homes which are being sold ’regular sale’, in good condition and priced at fair market value are under contract very quickly. Military personnel stationed at Fort Belvoir or Quantico MCB search for homes in Woodbridge due to the fact that you get more for your money in Prince William County. |
| Greatest Activity | Repeat Buyers |
| Reason to Buy/Sell | Job Growth |
| Nearest Metro Area | Washington DC |
| Housing Hot Spots | The areas most common in a homebuyer search are Lake Ridge zip code 22192 (part of Woodbridge), Woodbridge 22193, 22191, 22192 Stafford zip code 22556, 22554 (includes Aquia Harbor), Triangle 22172 and Manassas 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112. Lake Ridge is the northern area of Woodbridge in Prince William County. Aquia Harbor / Stafford are in Stafford County. Manassas and Triangle are Prince William County. Port Potomac, Potomac Club, Lake Ridge, Old bridge, Westridge, Prince William Town Center, High Bridge, homes off Cardinal Road and Minnieville Rd., Powells Landing, Newport, River Falls, Ashland, Belmont Bay, Beaver Creek, Coventry Glen, Dale City, Dawson Landing, Eagles Pointe, Saratoga Hunt, Lake Terrapin, Park Center, Ridgefield Village, Reid’s Prospect, Winding Creek Estates. |
| Average Sold Price | $400,000 - View Graph Trend |
Quantico Local News
Finding the Best VA Mortgage - January 2nd, 2012 5:43pm
How to find the best VA mortgage in Northern Virginia
It may surprise you to know that in Northern Virginia many financial institutions can easily beat rates given by USAA and Navy Fed credit unions. These banks offer better rates than USAA and Navy Fed AND they have outstanding loan officers with knowledge specific to our Northern Virginia housing market. We understand that when you decide it's time to buy you might be comfortable arranging financing through the institution you've always used. However, over the years we've developed some very solid contacts in this area. Having a responsive loan officer to call with questions (or meet in person), at any time during the home buying process has many benefits, especially in a fast paced market like Northern Virginia, where Realtor and loan officer often have to work together to assure their clients get to settlement on time.
The other advantage is that you can work with your Realtor of choice. ... [ + Read Full Article ]
News for Quantico, VA - January 2nd, 2012 3:04pm
The number of short sales is rising but the process to get a short sale approved has decreased to approximately 90 days, sometimes less. Make sure your Realtor is CDPE certified (Certified Distressed Property Expert) because they are experts in the short sale field and they can best advise you as to whether a short sale is being managed properly and therefore its likelihood of closing.
Military Members Tax Credit Extended - April 3rd, 2011 2:23pm
News for Quantico, VA - March 1st, 2011 3:24pm
In 2010, Average home prices increased 10% in Prince William County. Short sales are still prevalent but the price gap between homes being sold under short sale terms and regular sales terms has decreased dramatically.
Contact Information
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703-801-2076
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Mortgage Rates
– Feb 13th, 2012 –
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30 yr. fixed rate: 3.89%---------------------------------
15 yr. fixed rate: 3.21%
30 yr. jumbo rate: 4.60%
15 yr. jumbo rate: 3.96%
Home Values
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Sluggish housing market in line for a better 2012, according to quarterly survey
The figures are still flat-lining, but there appears to be signs of life out there for a housing market that's dying for an upward tick of good news.
The up-and-down ride for real estate the past few years was seen again in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to a survey of HouseHunt real estate agents across the country. There are pockets of good news offset by bad, with home values and prices basically bumping along the bottom of the grid on a perceived never-ending rocky road.
Click here for full article...
The figures are still flat-lining, but there appears to be signs of life out there for a housing market that's dying for an upward tick of good news.
The up-and-down ride for real estate the past few years was seen again in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to a survey of HouseHunt real estate agents across the country. There are pockets of good news offset by bad, with home values and prices basically bumping along the bottom of the grid on a perceived never-ending rocky road.
Click here for full article...
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Request More Information Let me answer your questions! Ask Me!
Michael LaBrash
RE/MAX Gateway
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 703-801-2076
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