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Winter 2012 Market Update
Market Update for Northern Virginia: Fort Belvoir / Fairfax County
By Susan Borrelli
Co-Owner Ron & Susan Associates
January 2, 2011
In the United States a metropolitan statistical area refers to a geographical region with a relatively high population density at its core (at least 2.5 million) and close economic ties throughout the area. A typical metropolitan area is centered around a single large city that wields substantial influence over the region.
Northern Virginia is such a metropolitan area. It is made up of closely-tied contiguous counties that serve the distinct employment opportunities of the Federal Government and the multitude of agencies which support it. Consequently, Northern Virginia receives the lions-share of Federal procurement spending. Northern Virginia is also home to Fort Belvoir, Quantico MCB, Fort Myer and The Pentagon and is headquarters to many technology companies and consulting firms.
Highlights cited from the Metropolitan Regional Information Service Quarterly Market Report for Q3 2011: Fairfax County
1) Average Sold Price Increased by 7% for townhomes but decreased 3% for single family homes vs. 1 Year Ago
2) Inventory on Single Family Detached Homes decreased by 9%
3) Average Days on Market decreased by 36%
4) Sold Price as a Percent of List Price is approximately 96.5%
Factors contributing to the recovering Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
1) More banks are authorizing short sales when the seller has a legitimate hardship and communicates in good faith with the bank. Short sale homes are being priced under market value but the gap between market value and sales price has decreased significantly since late 2009. One reason for this is sellers remain in their homes while they try to sell the property thus maintaining the home in good condition. In addition, the short sale approval timeframe is greatly reduced making it viable for more people to wait out the process. There were more short sales on detached homes than on townhome properties in 2011.
3) Average Sales Price as a percent of list price at 96.5% means, in my opinion, that the minds of buyers and sellers are closely aligned as it pertains to home values. This opinion is substantiated by DOM statistics (Days on Market) which show that buyers are not waiting for prices to adjust downward before making an offer.
4) Unemployment in the Northern Virginia area is approximately 4.6% - far below unemployment rates faced by other regions of the country. Several factors including military personnel and contractors being moved from other military bases to Fort Belvoir and Quantico MCB has kept demand for housing relatively high. Conservative bank appraisals (which often take into account short sale comparables), have been a form of checks and balances which have kept prices from climbing at higher rates. As a listing agent, I have personally dealt with several low appraisals which put the home sale in jeopardy of closing. A strong rebuttal driven by our local market expertise was the only reason the homes settled at the contracted prices.
Predictions
Demand for housing will remain high as more and more personnel move to Fort Belvoir and Fort Belvoir North (DoD/NGA). Banks will continue to approve loans but will remain conservative as far as home values thus increases in housing prices will not spike. In addition to BRAC, record low interest rates are a driving force for first time and move up buyers which has generated demand for housing. I see this demand continuing into the future.
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| Average Home Price | $550,000 - View Graph Trend |
| Average Price Compared to Last Year | Up 0-5% |
| Average Time on Market | 30-60 days |
| Best Selling Price Range | $650,000 - $699,000 |
| Worst Selling Price Range | $800,000 - $849,000 |
| Prices As % of Asking Price | 95-100% |
| Existing Home Prices for the past 90 days are? | Decreasing |
| Market Trend | Decreasing |
| Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market | Equal buyers and sellers |
| Buyer Activity for the past 90 days in Fort Belvoir is | Decreasing |
| Seller Activity for the past 90 days in Fort Belvoir is? | Decreasing |
| Multiple Offers? | Yes |
| Multiple Offers Commentary | Absolutely, if a home is priced at current market value for its condition and location, it will receive multiple offers. |
| What Percentage of the Current Housing Inventory are Foreclosures and/or Short Sales? | 40-45% |
| Is Financing Available For Qualified Buyers? | Yes |
| Comments on Financing For Qualified Buyers | Credit score is a huge component in obtaining a loan. A buyer must also have an earnest deposit (1% or more of the asking price), and a down payment 0-3% VA Loan, 3.5% FHA to 10-20% Conventional depending on the loan plan and credit score. For our area on VA Loans, the allowable loan limit for 100%, financing has been increased to $818,750, effective January 1 through September 30, 2013. The FHA and Conventional loan limits will remain the same. The FHA and Conventional loan limit is $729,750 High Balance (417,001-729,750). The Conforming limit is $417,000. Please note, even most VA loans require some cash to close. If you would like to speak to a loan officer with respect to loan requirements, please contact us. |
| Housing Inventory | Good supply - Some Prices |
| Inventory Comments | Inventory is moving very quickly for homes priced properly and in ’Move-In Condition’. If a home needs work or is priced high, it will sit on the market until the price is reduced. |
| Greatest Activity | Repeat Buyers |
| Reason to Buy/Sell | Job Growth |
| Nearest Metro Area | Washington DC |
| Housing Hot Spots | Fairfax County Zip Codes: Lorton 22079, Springfield 22152 and 22153, Alexandria 22308, 22309, 22306, Kingstowne 22315, Fairfax Station 22039 Fort Belvoir 22060. Prince William County: Woodbridge/Lake Ridge 22192, 22193, 22191. FAIRFAX COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS: Laurel Hill, Lorton Station, Crosspointe, Mason Neck, Remmington, Stone Manor, Hallowing Point, Gunston Manor, Gunston Cove, Hollymeade, Laurel Highlands, Laurel overlook, Inlet Cove, Occoquan Overlook, Hampton, Harbor View, Lorfax Heights, Lorton Station Town Center, Marovelli, Village at Lorton Valley, Fairfax Station, Barrington, South Run, Sandy Run, Burke Centre, Burke Lake, Burke Ridge, Burke Station, Cherry Run, Lake Braddock, Longwood Knolls, Millstone Pond, Rolling Valley, Signal Hill, Edgewater, Lee Chapel, Cardinal Forest, Covington Woods, Gambrill, Keene Mill Manor, Lakewood Hills, Pohick Creek View, Orange Hunt. PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY: WOODBRIDGE: River Falls, Beavers Creek, Colony Creek, Cannons Bluff, Coventry Glen, Old Bridge, Lake Ridge, Port Potomac, Potomac Club, Powells Landing, Saratoga Hunt, Eagles Point, Westridge, Springwoods, Prince William Town Centre, Bellmont, Bel Aire. |
| Average Sold Price | $550,000 - View Graph Trend |
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Michael LaBrash
RE/MAX Gateway
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